2005 Australian Cabinet Papers Reveal Warnings on Climate Change and Pandemic Preparedness
In 2005, Australian cabinet papers revealed significant warnings concerning climate change and pandemic preparedness.
A submission by Alexander Downer and Ian Campbell in August 2005 highlighted that climate change was occurring faster than predicted, placing many Australian systems at risk. Australia’s vulnerability was attributed to its dependence on coal, marginal and variable rainfall, and heavy irrigation. Projected impacts included pressure on water supplies, increased drought, more frequent and intense bushfires, and negative effects on agriculture caused by soil salinity and erosion. The submission noted the unprecedented pace of global warming and stated that current CO2 concentrations were about 30% higher than at any time in the past 400,000 years.
The policy context in 2005 showed Australia had not ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2002, with concerns that a lack of a lasting policy framework was hindering investment in energy generation and energy-intensive industries. The Howard government had vetoed a proposed emissions trading scheme in 2003 and rejected strengthening renewable energy targets in 2004 but moved toward a trading scheme by 2007 following further review. Philip Ruddock acknowledged the emerging scientific consensus on climate change and supported Australia's contribution, including removing the moratorium on nuclear power; carbon capture and storage was considered to have unrealized potential at the time. The Treasury advocated for an international climate strategy that was environmentally effective, economically efficient, and did not impose an unfair burden on Australia. However, Downer’s November 2025 column questioned the climate consensus, calling for a fair and proportionate contribution and cautioning against imposing large costs for limited impact.
Separately, the cabinet papers also revealed warnings about potential pandemic threats. By October 2005, pandemic planning had reached the national security committee, recognizing that a global influenza pandemic could necessitate closing schools and international borders. In November 2005, Foreign Minister Alexander Downer warned of a significant risk that the H5N1 virus could mutate into a human-transmissible pandemic with potentially devastating consequences.
Measures discussed included bans on cruise ships and foreign aircraft and isolation of travelers to curb the spread, with anticipated deep economic and social disruptions. Domestic protections would involve border closures, travel restrictions, quarantining, and closures of schools and businesses, with state and territory governments responsible for high-level emergency responses. The government had stockpiled antivirals sufficient for about 20% of the population and was conducting trials of a domestically produced vaccine.
International readiness was considered uneven, with China, Indonesia, and Vietnam cited as having low preparedness. Planning also included provisions to assist Australians overseas and considerations for evacuating over one million foreign nationals in Australia. Officials discussed use of antivirals such as Tamiflu and Relenza and planned drills to test the pandemic response.
