2025 US Economy Under Trump 2.0 Shows Mixed Performance Despite Optimistic Claims
The analysis of the 2025 US economy during Trump 2.0 reveals a mixed picture based on official statistics, despite President Trump's optimistic claims of a booming economy.
Inflation remained elevated throughout 2025, with tariffs potentially contributing to higher prices. To combat inflation, the Federal Reserve sharply raised interest rates; by the end of the year, it cautiously began cutting rates. Meanwhile, Trump pressured for more rapid rate cuts and attempted to influence the Federal Reserve Board under Chairman Powell.
Employment growth slowed significantly, with job losses recorded in June and August, followed by a substantial October loss of 105,000 jobs attributed to the longest government shutdown. November saw a modest addition of 64,000 jobs, though data for that month was delayed.
The unemployment rate rose steadily through 2025, reaching 4.6% in November—the highest since September 2021. The federal workforce declined by 271,000 since January, while overall unemployment increased by about a million individuals.
GDP growth was volatile over the year: a contraction in the first quarter caused by imports in anticipation of tariffs was followed by rebounds in the second and third quarters. The growth forecast for 2025 stands at about 2%, with a slight increase to 2.1% expected in 2026.
Trump’s rhetoric describing a "Golden Age" for the economy contrasts with data indicating fragile economic foundations and uneven living standards amid rising prices and only a tepid increase in jobs.
A promised manufacturing renaissance has yet to produce a sustained surge in employment, and labor-force growth stalled during the summer months.
