A new political geography is coming into view across Britain with May 2026 elections
The May 7, 2026 elections across local councils, the Scottish Parliament, and the Welsh Senedd are poised to reshape party fortunes and could imperil the leaders of both Labour and the Conservative parties.
In Wales, Labour faces the possibility of becoming the opposition for the first time since devolution, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK set to make gains. Meanwhile, the Scottish National Party (SNP) in Scotland could secure a Holyrood majority.
In England, both Labour and the Conservatives risk losing councillors to the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, and the Greens. These local election results are expected to be read as leadership signals for Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch.
Devolution has caused a fragmentation of national allegiances for more than a decade, with the SNP positioning itself as a defender against Westminster, and Labour’s popularity closely tied to the Westminster government's standing in prior years. Eluned Morgan highlighted the challenges of sharing a party with the prime minister during the Senedd campaign, illustrating how national dynamics affect devolved elections, as Keir Starmer himself is not on the ballot.
England's devolution structure remains irregular and evolving. The English Devolution and Community Empowerment Bill aims to transfer power from Westminster to local authorities but faces resistance from the Treasury over fiscal powers.
Reform UK has achieved significant local gains, including securing two new mayoralties in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull & East Yorkshire, as well as winning a by-election in Runcorn. These successes contribute to a broader erosion of the Westminster political duopoly.
Additionally, four new mayoral elections scheduled for May have been postponed until 2028, a move criticized for delaying devolution and consolidating power, potentially benefiting insurgent parties.
