A Shift No Country Can Ignore: Where Global Emissions Stand 10 Years After the Paris Climate Agreement
Renewable energy grew by 15% last year, making up over 90% of all new power capacity globally. Clean-energy investment surpassed $2 trillion, more than double that of fossil-fuel investment.
Electric vehicles now represent about 20% of new car sales worldwide. Low-carbon power accounts for over 50% of generation capacity in both China and India, with China's emissions flattening.
China added more renewable energy capacity last year than the rest of the world combined. Clean energy now comprises about 10% of China's GDP. Despite CO2 emissions reaching approximately 12.3 billion tonnes last year, solar panel costs have fallen around 90% over the past decade.
India has about half of its installed capacity in low-carbon power, with strong renewables growth and plans to absorb larger shares of renewable energy. However, India could become the world’s second-largest emitter within a decade as coal production has surged.
Global temperature projections indicate progress but remain far below Paris Agreement ambitions. Pre-Paris projections showed more than 4°C warming, reduced to around 3°C after Paris, about 2.8°C after COP26, and roughly 2.5°C today if all promises are fulfilled.
On climate finance and adaptation, planned adaptation funding is to reach $120 billion per year by 2035, with the deadline moved from 2030. Rich countries have not yet clearly delivered on the broader $1.3 trillion-per-year climate finance target for 2035. Discussions at COP29 stalled without settling firm numbers.
Tensions continued at COP29 between rich and poor countries regarding finance. The loss-and-damage fund remains contentious, with poorer countries insisting climate finance is a legal obligation that must be mobilised.
US politics and geopolitics present ongoing challenges. The legacy of Trump's withdrawal and current US stances hinder momentum. At COP30, US officials engaged in IMO carbon-levy talks reportedly intimidating developing-country delegates. Multilateral cooperation is stressed as essential to phasing out fossil fuels.
