All Hail Avatar: How Event Movies Are Trying to Bring Back the Box Office Blockbuster
James Cameron's Avatar: Fire and Ash is set to release on 19 December 2025, representing the latest test of event-cinema viability amid ongoing industry adjustments.
The US box office in 2025 stands at about $7.6 billion, with the worldwide box office projected around $34.1 billion, roughly 13% below pre-COVID levels.
Hollywood currently defines "theatricality" as the key criterion for cinema releases, aiming to attract audiences away from home viewing by delivering urgent, cinema-first experiences.
Theatrical windows have shrunk toward around 45 days of exclusivity, with PVOD releases typically following after about 17 days for some titles, although exceptions exist, such as Matrix Resurrections, which debuted on HBO Max in 2021.
Recent box office performances show mixed outcomes: Top Gun: Maverick has grossed approximately $1.5 billion worldwide; Mission: Impossible installments have earned under $600 million; Barbie grossed $1.44 billion; Oppenheimer reached $975 million; the Deadpool & Wolverine crossover made $1.3 billion; and the Minecraft movie earned about $1 billion.
Budget and slate strategies are being recalibrated with mid-budget titles finding notable success: Smile, with a $17 million budget, earned $217 million; a Naked Gun remake made a profit on a $42 million budget; One Battle After Another's budget ranged from $130 to $175 million; and Paramount supports a broader theatrical slate.
Streaming platforms like Netflix remain closely tied to theatrical success; since 2022, about two-thirds of Netflix’s weekly top 10 English-language titles had theatrical releases. The $250 million budgeted Red One delivered a strong streaming debut despite underperforming domestically at the box office, with about $185 million gross.
The industry is experimenting with event-driven models to capture audience engagement. Examples include the cross-market appeal demonstrated by Barbenheimer (Barbie and Oppenheimer releases), fan engagement leveraged by Deadpool & Wolverine, and IP-led ventures such as Wicked adaptations aiming to recreate live-entertainment energy in cinemas. Holiday family releases also seek to capitalize on seasonal attendance patterns.
