Alpine glaciers face peak extinction in eight years amid global warming crisis
Alpine glaciers are approaching a peak extinction rate not seen in at least eight years, with more than 100 glaciers in the European Alps expected to melt away permanently by 2033. The western US and Canada are projected to reach their peak glacier loss less than a decade after the Alps, with over 800 glaciers disappearing annually by then. Globally, about 200,000 glaciers remain, but roughly 750 disappear every year at present, and this rate is anticipated to accelerate as fossil-fuel emissions continue to drive warming.
Under a 2.7°C warming scenario, annual glacier losses could peak at around 3,000 by 2040 and then plateau through 2060. By 2100, around 80% of today's glaciers may be lost. In contrast, a 1.5°C warming scenario would limit peak annual losses to approximately 2,000 in 2040 before declining afterward. Central Europe, which has about 3,200 glaciers, would face an 87% shrinkage by 2100 under 1.5°C warming and 97% under 2.7°C.
Glaciers in Greenland are expected to hit peak extinction around 2063, with total losses of 40% by 2100 under 1.5°C warming and 59% under 2.7°C. Melting in Greenland is projected to continue beyond 2100. The Caucasus and southern Andes regions are also expected to endure significant glacier losses.
These changes pose serious risks to approximately two billion people living downstream who depend on mountain water. Adaptation strategies include new farming practices, alternative tourism development, and the use of artificial glaciers. However, efforts are challenged by uncertainties such as difficulties in accurately counting small, debris-covered glaciers and gaps in glacier data coverage.
