Analysis of the US Economy Under Trump in 2025
President Trump promised a 'golden age' of the US economy beginning now, with results expected within six months to a year. However, 2025 economic data reveal weaker performance than promised, with average monthly jobs growth of about 55,000 in the first 11 months. October saw a sharp loss of 105,000 jobs, while November recorded a 64,000 increase, though the data was delayed. Unemployment rose to 4.6% in November 2025, the highest level in over four years.
Manufacturing employment did not increase overall during 2025; factory jobs rose in only two of ten months following Trump's return. Claims of a manufacturing resurgence are largely based on policy shifts. Tariffs increased substantially from 2.4% to 16.8%, the highest since 1935, aiming to push a 'new American industrialism'. However, the rollout was described as erratic, marked by deadlines and reversals.
Inflation remained elevated, with the Consumer Price Index rising 2.7% in November 2025. Despite Trump's claims that prices were falling, the general inflation trend did not support this, although some price declines were seen in groceries. Policy actions during this period included tariff relief on select imports, $12 billion in aid for farmers, potential stimulus checks funded by tariffs, and discussions of a 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' tax-and-spending package.
Economists express skepticism about a significant economic boost in 2026. Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasts growth around 2% for both 2025 and 2026. MIT economist Simon Johnson notes that many lower-income Americans experienced a net negative impact from these policies.
