Australians Expected to Spend Big on Boxing Day Despite Consumer Caution
Australians are expected to spend significantly during the Boxing Day sales, with forecasts estimating $1.6 billion spent on the day itself and a total of $3.832 billion during the post-Christmas week through 31 December. This represents a 4.4% increase year-on-year, according to data from ARA and Roy Morgan.
Approximately one in three Australians plans to shop on Boxing Day, based on a Finder survey of 1,005 participants, with the total spend projected at $3.1 billion. Spending on Boxing Day is anticipated to focus on household goods ($476 million), fashion ($216 million), and department stores ($123 million), with department-store sales up 5.1% compared to 2024.
Despite this expected spending boost, consumer confidence remains weak. The ANZ-Roy Morgan index fell to 81.5 for the week ending 15 December, which is 2 points lower than the previous week, 2.4 points below the previous year's level, and 2.8 points below the 2025 weekly average of 86.3. Factors contributing to this include concerns over potential interest-rate rises and a soft labor market.
Retail experts note that Boxing Day remains a traditional shopping event likely to encourage strong sales despite cautious consumer sentiment. However, the hold on interest rate cuts and the possibility of increases could suppress discretionary spending.
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's deputy chair, Catriona Lowe, has issued a warning to consumers, advising vigilance against misleading discount practices. Following findings from Black Friday involving fake countdowns and other deceptive sales tactics, the ACCC has communicated with major retailers to curb these behaviors and advises shoppers to focus on the final price when assessing deals.
Underlying economic indicators show some resilience: the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that household spending rose 1.3% in October and increased 5.6% year-on-year, suggesting a strength that might support spending during Boxing Day despite fragile consumer confidence.
