Barclays Forecasts Tepid Crypto Market in 2026 Without Major Catalysts
Barclays predicts that 2026 will be a down year for crypto trading volumes unless significant catalysts emerge to boost activity. The report highlights that spot market volumes have cooled recently, putting pressure on revenues for key players like Coinbase and Robinhood.
Despite a more favorable political environment for digital assets in the U.S. following recent elections, much of this optimism appears to be priced into the market already. Barclays notes that any legislative progress, such as the passage of the CLARITY Act—which aims to clarify asset classifications and delineate regulator roles between the SEC and CFTC—could influence long-term growth, but its approval is uncertain and may face legal challenges.
Past periods of heightened activity, such as the March 2024 BTC ETF inflows and a pro-crypto presidential win, drove notable spikes in the market. Without comparable major events in 2026, investor enthusiasm is expected to wane, leading to muted volumes.
While tokenization activity is expanding, with firms like BlackRock and Robinhood piloting new initiatives, Barclays cautions that this trend is still early stage and unlikely to meaningfully boost earnings in 2026.
Coinbase remains a focal point; however, despite its expansion into derivatives and tokenized equity markets, it continues to face shrinking spot volumes along with rising operating costs. Consequently, Barclays has trimmed the price target for Coinbase to $291.
