Battery Electric Cars to Surpass Diesel on Great Britain Roads by 2030, London Poised to Lead Diesel-Free Transition
A recent analysis by New AutoMotive projects that battery electric cars will overtake diesel cars on Great Britain’s roads by 2030, with London expected to be the first UK city to become diesel-free due to the expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez).
In 2025, battery electric vehicles accounted for 4% of cars on UK roads, while diesel cars comprised 32%, petrol 58%, and hybrids 6%, according to data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). Diesel cars on Great Britain’s roads numbered approximately 9.9 million in June 2025, a 21% decline from the 12.4 million peak.
Despite the decline in diesel cars, the number of diesel vans has risen to a record 4.4 million, indicating that the transition to cleaner transport is progressing more slowly in the van sector.
The popularity of diesel surged in the 2000s, driven largely by cheaper taxation and the fuel efficiency of diesel engines. However, diesel cars emit higher levels of nitrous oxides, harmful pollutants linked to serious health issues. The 2015 Volkswagen emissions scandal, which resulted in fines of about €30 billion, highlighted these environmental and health concerns and is associated with thousands of deaths and asthma cases.
As older diesel vehicles are scrapped, the share of diesel cars is expected to continue declining, with some fueling stations withdrawing diesel supplies. Efforts to reduce diesel use include low-emission zones like London’s Ulez and similar city schemes in Scotland, such as in Edinburgh and Glasgow.
Policy analysts observe that diesel is being phased out across Great Britain, signaling the end of its era as the global automotive industry shifts towards electric propulsion.
