Bitcoin Drifts Lower Amid Persisting Bearish Trend; Altcoins Lag Behind
Bitcoin slipped 1.5% to around $86,824.14 after failing to reclaim $94,700 last week, extending a downtrend marked by lower highs since early October. The CoinDesk 20 index fell 1.6% since midnight UTC as bitcoin dominance rose to 58.7%, up from 57.8% on November 26, while altcoins underperformed, with ASTER and TAO among the worst performers in the top 100, dropping 6.5% and 6.1% respectively.
The average crypto Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 38.49, indicating oversold conditions and the potential for a short-term relief rally, although no clear catalysts are expected approaching the year-end. For bitcoin to break its bearish trend, trading back above roughly $95,000, and ideally $98,000, would be necessary.
Market volatility remains relatively calm, with 30-day implied volatility (Volmex BVIV) below 50% annualized ahead of significant events such as upcoming U.S. inflation data and the Bank of Japan rate decision. Bitcoin's 90-day historical volatility now aligns with major tech stocks like Tesla and Nvidia, reflecting market maturation.
Open interest in futures for BTC and ETH declined over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, BTC/USD longs on Bitfinex reached their highest levels since February, while BCH, UNI, and NEAR showed modest increases in open interest. Deribit options data reveals put writing at $85,000 and call writing at $95,000 and $100,000, indicating expectations of a broad-range trade in the near term.
