Bitcoin Enters Bear Market as Demand Weakens and ETF Holdings Decline
Bitcoin has entered a bear market, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reducing their holdings by about 24,000 BTC in Q4 2025, reversing the accumulation trend seen in the previous year's quarter. Analysts observe weaker demand from large holders and derivatives markets, echoing patterns that have preceded past downturns.
Currently trading around $88,000, Bitcoin has fallen below its 365-day moving average, a significant long-term indicator that typically distinguishes bull markets from bear markets, according to CryptoQuant. The decline in ETF holdings, slower accumulation by large investors, and weakening derivatives indicators all signal diminished demand.
Since 2023, Bitcoin demand experienced three key waves linked to events such as the January 2024 ETF launch, Donald Trump's election win, and a bubble involving Bitcoin treasury companies. However, growth slowed from early October 2025, suggesting that much of this cycle’s demand growth is behind us, thereby implying bearish pressure on price.
CryptoQuant's analysis highlights weaker growth particularly among addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC, including ETFs and corporate treasuries. This group made up most of the cycle's demand growth and exhibits patterns similar to those seen before the 2022 bear market.
Looking ahead, projections indicate a potential cycle low near $56,000, approximately 55% below Bitcoin’s all-time high, with intermediate support around $70,000.
