Bitcoin Faces Critical 2026 Outlook Amid Bullish Control and Bear Market Risks
Bitcoin remains in an uptrend with bulls currently in control, but expert Tony Severino warns that a bear market scenario could emerge in 2026. Key resistance is observed around the 50-week moving average near $102,000, with the $100,000 level acting as a significant psychological barrier. Reclaiming and holding above $100,000 could embolden bulls but also carries the risk of a reversal. A bear market would be confirmed if Bitcoin cannot reclaim $100,000 and maintain support; a lower low would signal a downtrend. Critical support lies around $74,000, with a potential move toward $53,000 if this level is broken.
A six-week LMACD bearish crossover has already been confirmed, and to invalidate the bear thesis, the monthly LMACD would need to converge and close bullish. The first quarter of 2026 is described as pivotal, with four-year-cycle dynamics indicating a higher probability of a bear market. This year may prove to be Bitcoin’s most decisive year, while 2025 is expected to close as a Doji.
Ethereum may play a key role in the market’s direction. The ETH/BTC pairing shows potential for reversal, and ETH/USD might hold up better than BTC/USD during a downturn, which could possibly trigger an altseason if sentiment improves.
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin is trading inside a structurally fragile range influenced by unrealized losses, realized losses, and long-term profit-taking. Market conviction is currently low, with volatility being more pronounced on shorter timeframes.
