Bitcoin Hashrate Drops 4% in December, Potential Bullish Signal According to VanEck
The Bitcoin network hashrate fell 4% in December through December 15, marking the steepest decline since April 2024. VanEck highlights that sustained hashrate declines have historically preceded stronger price returns, with 90-day forward returns being positive 65% of the time after a 30-day decline dating back to 2014.
Miner profitability is under pressure due to lower BTC prices and higher costs, forcing about 1.3 GW of mining capacity offline in China during December. Some of this hashrate decline may be permanent as mining shifts toward AI workloads, potentially removing up to 10% of Bitcoin's hashrate.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $88,400, approximately 30% below its October 6 all-time high of $126,080. The breakeven electricity cost for a 2022-era Bitmain S19 XP miner decreased by about 36% year over year to roughly $0.077 per kWh by mid-December 2025.
VanEck notes that this capitulation could signal consolidation before recovery. Up to 13 countries reportedly support Bitcoin mining, including Russia, France, Bhutan, Iran, El Salvador, UAE, Oman, Ethiopia, Argentina, Kenya, and Japan. Historically, declines in hashrate have been followed by higher price performance over longer horizons; a negative 90-day trend is associated with positive 180-day returns in 77% of cases with an average gain of 72%.
