Bitcoin May Have Entered a Bear Market Since Early November, According to CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, suggests that Bitcoin may have entered a bear market in early November, based on bearish signals from both technical and on-chain indicators. A key factor in this assessment is Bitcoin's price falling below its one-year moving average, a traditional marker signaling a trend change.
Moreno estimates the bear market bottom to be around $56,000 to $60,000 over the next year, referencing Bitcoin’s realized price. The realized price is defined as the average price that current holders paid, which often acts as a magnet pulling the price back during downturns. This projected bottom implies a drawdown of approximately 55% from Bitcoin's all-time high, which is less severe compared to past bear markets that saw declines of 70% to 80%.
Bitcoin began 2025 near $93,000, peaked at about $126,080 in October, and ended the year below its opening level, trading around $88,500 at the time of the report. Moreno notes that this cycle is structurally different due to the absence of major past collapses such as Terra, Celsius, and FTX, as well as increased institutional participation through ETFs and long-term allocation strategies. These institutional buyers tend to purchase rather than sell, providing cushioning to the downside.
Due to this more robust market infrastructure, some market observers expect the year 2026 to be less bullish than previously anticipated.
