Bitcoin's Realized Capitalization Hits Record $1.125 Trillion, Challenging Four-Year Cycle
Bitcoin's realized capitalization reached a record $1.125 trillion according to Glassnode data. This on-chain metric values each BTC at the price it last moved, reflecting capital inflows rather than speculative price actions.
Despite a 36% price correction from the October all-time high, the realized cap has continued to rise. This contrasts with the 2022 bear market when realized cap fell from about $470 billion to $385 billion amid capitulation. Currently, there is no such capitulation observed.
The realized cap has paused near $1.125 trillion, resembling a similar pause in April 2025 when Bitcoin bottomed around $76,000 before reaching new highs.
Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, suggests that Bitcoin could defy the traditional four-year cycle with upside surprises expected in 2026. He highlights the macroeconomic backdrop—characterized by resilient global growth, potential rate cuts, yield-curve steepening, and liquidity expansion—that could weaken the US dollar and support Bitcoin's growth.
Dragosch further notes that Bitcoin appears to be underpricing the current macro environment, comparing it to conditions during the Covid recession and the FTX collapse, albeit with no US recession occurring at present.
