Bitcoin Sell-Off Likely Complete; Rally Into Year-End Still in Play, Stanchart Analyst Says
Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered noted that bitcoin's recent price decline is nearing exhaustion and a rally toward the end of the year remains the base case scenario. Since the introduction of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs last year, the market has experienced its third roughly 30% correction. Bitcoin traded below $90,000 at one point, erasing about 30% from its all-time high above $126,000 reached in early October, before later hovering near $93,000.
Key market indicators, including MicroStrategy’s modified net asset value (NAV), have plunged to very low levels. This trend suggests sellers are exhausted and could indicate capitulation. Kendrick's analysis relies on sentiment and valuation metrics that have reset to levels historically associated with market bottoms.
Analysts at Bitfinex shared similar views, pointing to easing losses among short-term holders and on-chain capitulation indicators as signs of a market floor. The broader discussion considers bitcoin's movement within its usual four-year cycle, questioning if the current phase represents the bear-market period, particularly in light of dynamics influenced by the ETF-driven environment.
