Bitcoin Stuck in Mixed Signals Despite Fed Rate Cut and Market Indicators
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, accompanied by hawkish forward guidance, leaving Bitcoin's (BTC) price directionless.
BTC's daily price remains trapped in a countertrend mini rising channel within a larger downtrend. A break above the bearish trendline could signal an end to the downtrend, while a break below the mini ascending channel may lead to deeper losses.
Technical indicators show the BTC MACD histogram (50,100,9) approaching a bullish cross, which suggests potential renewed bullish momentum.
Following the Fed meeting, the Dollar Index (DXY) fell to around 98.13–98.36, with its MACD histogram flipping negative, indicating bearish momentum for the dollar.
The Nasdaq trades above its key 50-, 100-, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), providing bullish signals for the crypto market with a mixed correlation to BTC.
Despite these signals, ETF flows remain weak, with no net inflows exceeding $500 million in the past month and cumulative inflows since late November around $219 million.
If BTC breaks out to the upside, resistance bands between $97,000 and $108,000, defined by the 50-, 100-, 200-day SMAs and the Ichimoku Cloud, could present challenges.
Conversely, in a bear case, a break below the mini ascending channel could expose support near $80,000.
