Bitcoin Surges to $90,353 but Rally Faces Challenges Amid Year-End Liquidity Concerns
On December 22, 2025, Bitcoin reached an eight-day high at $90,353 during a futures-led rally, with the price later stabilizing around $90,000, reflecting a 2.2% increase on the day. This surge is characterized by a divergence between futures and spot markets, as open interest and perpetual futures cumulative volume delta (CVD) have been rising since December 18, while spot CVD has declined, signaling that the move is primarily driven by derivatives.
Despite this rally, demand in the U.S. appears weak, evidenced by the Coinbase premium turning negative and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing net outflows in recent weeks without clear signs of sustained institutional inflows. Conversely, Digital Asset Trusts (DATs) recorded about $2.23 billion in net inflows for the week of December 15–21, marking a 72% increase from the prior week and constituting the largest weekly DAT inflow since late September. This inflow spike is attributed to corporate treasury purchases of Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum, with the Federal Reserve's December 10 rate decision cited as a driving factor.
Market sentiment reflects caution, as the rally is seen as potentially vulnerable due to diminishing year-end liquidity and repeated rejections of Bitcoin prices above $90,000. Near-term upside appears limited, with models assigning only a 3% probability to a Santa rally over the holidays. Analysts anticipate a period of consolidation within a defined range roughly between $85,000 and $95,000, lacking a clear directional bias. Additionally, market participants await mid-January's clarity on MSCI inclusion for BTC-heavy treasuries, which could significantly influence sentiment going forward.
