Bitcoin Traders Anticipate Limited Rally with Major Bullish Bets on 2026 Targets Following Fed Rate Cut
Bitcoin options traders are expecting a limited rally rather than a full Santa rally, focusing major bullish bets on the March 2026 $130,000 and $180,000 strike prices.
The largest open interest lies in the December 26 $100,000 call, with over 18,360 bullish contracts compared to about 2,540 bearish puts, according to Laevitas.
The Federal Reserve plans to purchase approximately $40 billion per month in short-term Treasuries to manage liquidity and defend its rate target.
The overall option structure suggests tactical upside rather than a broad rally, supported by long call condor and bull call spread setups.
Despite optimism, the 25-delta options skew remains negative at -5%, indicating ongoing demand for downside protection.
CryptoQuant projects a relief rally cap near $99,000 for Bitcoin.
Currently, Bitcoin trades around $89,500, down 2.4% in 24 hours and about 5.5% below the intraday high of $94,267 recorded after the Fed decision, as reported by CoinGecko.
Year-end liquidity is historically weakest, which can dampen near-term momentum, noted Adam Chu from GreeksLive.
The probability of Bitcoin reclaiming and staying above $100,000 by Christmas is about 24%, with bets centered on a strong start in Q1 2026, according to Sean Dawson of Derive.
Traders’ conviction heavily focuses on early 2026, with call activity at $130,000 and $180,000 signaling expected upside.
