Bitcoin Trades Within a Structurally Fragile Range Amid Market Uncertainty
Bitcoin is currently trading within a structurally fragile range, facing pressure from high unrealized losses, realized loss realization, and profit-taking by long-term holders. According to Glassnode, the market remains steady but lacks conviction. Demand is resilient enough to keep the price above the True Market Mean, which represents the cost basis of non-dormant coins.
The overall market structure is described as weak yet stable, supported by patient demand but constrained by persistent selling pressure. The short-term trajectory of Bitcoin depends on improvements in liquidity and sellers easing their positions. In the long term, the recovery will hinge on reclaiming key cost-basis thresholds and moving out of this time-driven phase.
On-chain dynamics indicate that time is a negative factor, with higher realized losses increasing recovery anchors. Veteran investors' realized profits also act as a boosting effect. Near-term price scenarios include a potential retest of approximately $95,000 and possibly reaching the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis at $102,700. The True Market Mean remains the most probable zone for bottom formation unless a macroeconomic shock occurs.
The market is facing challenges including ETF outflows, low leverage, and muted futures trading, all of which contribute to thinner spot liquidity and greater vulnerability to macro catalysts. Spot relative volume is near the lower end of its 30-day range. Perpetual funding rates have hovered near zero to slightly negative, reducing liquidity-driven flows and buy-side support.
The options market is currently muted but exhibits a rise in short-dated implied volatility. Traders are increasingly buying volatility and hedging their positions, signaling a defensive posture with a downside bias and expectations of a near-term volatility event.
Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for December 10, 2025, stands out as the last meaningful catalyst. Post-meeting, the market is expected to transition into a low-liquidity, mean-reverting environment. Gamma sellers are likely to re-enter after any rate cuts, leading to a decay in implied volatility through the year-end.
