Bitwise and Grayscale Predict Bitcoin to Hit New Records in 2026, Breaking Four-Year Cycle
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Grayscale project that Bitcoin will break its traditional four-year cycle and reach new all-time highs in 2026. This forecast contrasts with the cycle tied to halving events, the last of which occurred in April 2024, typically predicting a down year in 2026.
They attribute this shift to increased institutional capital inflows, improved regulatory clarity, and a transformation in market dynamics. Grayscale highlights macro demand for stores of value amid rising public debt and notes that the market structure is evolving towards deeper integration with traditional finance. Steadier institutional buying is expected to reduce deep drawdowns and moderate year-over-year volatility.
Moreover, Bitwise expects Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks to decline in 2026, with crypto-specific factors primarily driving gains even if equities face challenges. Regulatory and policy developments supporting this outlook include the GENIUS Act, approval for national banks to offer crypto brokerage services by the OCC, Bank of America advisers now able to recommend BTC ETFs, and potential bipartisan crypto market structure legislation anticipated to become law in 2026.
Since January 2024, U.S. Bitcoin Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) have launched, and globally, crypto ETPs have attracted approximately $87 billion in net inflows. Despite this, crypto exposure remains under 0.5% of U.S. advised wealth. On-chain data reflect long-term holders distributing coins at a high rate over 30 days, while short-term holders have been trading below their cost basis since October 30, incurring unrealized losses around 12.6%. Bitcoin has been trading near $85,940, following a drop ahead of key U.S. data, with platforms like Bitfinex indicating groundwork is being laid for Bitcoin’s anticipated rise.
