Bitwise Predicts Bitcoin Will Break Its Four-Year Cycle and Reach New Highs in 2026
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan projects that Bitcoin will break its traditional four-year cycle in 2026 and reach new all-time highs, accompanied by lower volatility and weaker correlation with U.S. stocks.
The factors driving the typical four-year cycle—halvings, rate cycles, and leverage—are diminishing in influence. Halvings are becoming less impactful, interest rates are expected to decline, and leverage has been curtailed following liquidations in late 2025.
Bitwise points to increasing institutional capital inflows, the growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and easier access to Bitcoin on major brokerage platforms as key elements expected to support a rally in 2026.
As crypto-specific catalysts such as regulation, adoption, and product innovation gain prominence, Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. equities is anticipated to fall.
The firm anticipates 2026 could be a breakout year for Bitcoin as a portfolio asset, potentially attracting tens of billions of dollars in new institutional investment.
In 2025, Bitcoin has displayed lower volatility compared to stocks like Nvidia, with a decade-long trend of decreasing volatility attributed to ETFs broadening ownership.
