Cantor Fitzgerald Cuts MSTR Price Target but Remains Bullish on Bitcoin Strategy Amid Market Pressures
Cantor Fitzgerald has lowered Strategy's (MSTR) 12-month price target to $229 from $560, while maintaining an overweight rating. This new target implies approximately a 30% upside from the then-current price near $180.
The firm also reduced Strategy’s fully adjusted market NAV (mNAV) to 1.18x, reflecting a decreased premium that limits dilutive equity raises. Projected annual capital-market proceeds have fallen significantly to $7.8 billion from $22.5 billion, with the treasury value per share dropping from $364 to $74.
Mizuho notes that Strategy’s cash reserves and its shift toward preferred equity reduce the need to sell Bitcoin during market downturns, with no new convertible debt planned before 2028. Strategy intends to issue new equity only if mNAV rises above 1; otherwise, selling Bitcoin would be considered a last resort.
Following a $1.44 billion equity raise, cash reserves are sufficient to cover about 21 months of preferred stock dividends, giving Strategy flexibility to hold Bitcoin rather than sell. CFO Andrew Kang emphasized no refinancing of convertible debt before 2028 and highlighted reliance on preferred equity. The pause in Bitcoin purchases during 2022 is cited as a precedent for patience amid market downturns.
