Cathie Wood Predicts Disruption to Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Amid Institutional Influence
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood has suggested that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle may be disrupted due to an increased presence of institutional investors. This change could reduce both the declines and volatility historically observed in Bitcoin's price movements.
The most recent Bitcoin halving took place on April 20, 2024, which cut the block rewards to 3.125 BTC. Historically, such halvings are linked to bull runs by tightening the available new supply. However, Wood points out that Bitcoin's behavior is evolving. Today, it acts more as a risk-on asset, moving in tandem with equities and real estate, whereas in the past, it served as a risk-off asset.
Wood further argues that gold has shifted to a risk-off role as a hedge against geopolitical risk, while Bitcoin has reverted to risk-on behavior. Supporting this outlook, Ark Invest increased its holdings by buying more stock in Coinbase, Circle, and its Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ArkB) at the end of November.
Conversely, a Standard Chartered report contends that ETF buying activity makes the Bitcoin halving cycle a less reliable price driver. The report anticipates that this effect will manifest in the first half of 2026, leading to lowered Bitcoin price targets for 2025 at $100,000, down from a previous target of $200,000.
Additionally, a prediction market on Decrypt's Myriad indicates only a 4% chance that Bitcoin will outperform gold in 2025.
