Cathie Wood Says Institutional Adoption May Disrupt Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle
Cathie Wood has suggested that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle may no longer define its long-term behavior due to increasing institutional adoption reshaping market volatility and potential drawdowns. As large financial players accumulate Bitcoin, volatility appears to be decreasing, which could prevent larger declines. Wood proposed that the market might have already seen a recent price low.
She observed that Bitcoin now behaves more like a risk-on asset, moving alongside equities and real estate, rather than acting as a hedge; in contrast, gold is viewed as a risk-off asset. Ark Invest has accordingly expanded its crypto exposure by acquiring more shares of Coinbase, Circle, and the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB).
The industry continues to debate this shift. For example, Standard Chartered recently lowered its Bitcoin price target for 2025 from $200,000 to $100,000, citing a diminished influence of the halving events on price movements. Social media discourse often points to institutional inflows as a factor erasing the traditional cycle, with some commentators declaring "the cycle is dead" after Bitcoin peaked around $122,000 in July and began moving more slowly.
Analyst Patrick Heusser has referenced the Bitcoin Power Law, arguing that the price growth is primarily time-driven and that halvings are interruptions; daily supply changes of approximately 450 BTC are considered minor. Institutional accumulation through ETFs, corporate treasuries, and regulated products is seen as the main driver reshaping the market and reducing volatility.
Despite these views, Glassnode argues that the cycle remains intact, noting that data indicates patterns similar to earlier cycles, including behaviors of long-term holders and a softness in late-cycle demand, even as institutional adoption increases.
