CF Benchmarks Projects Bitcoin to Reach $1.4 Million by 2035, Advocates Portfolio Inclusion
CF Benchmarks, a Kraken subsidiary and FCA-regulated firm, has released a comprehensive 42-page report analyzing bitcoin's potential price trajectory through 2035 using traditional capital market models adapted for institutional investment analysis.
The report includes bear, base, and bull price scenarios, projecting a base-case price target of approximately $1.4 million by 2035. The bear-case scenario estimates bitcoin's value at around $637,000, while the bull-case anticipates a rise to about $2.95 million, contingent on varying adoption paths.
Valuation frameworks featured in the report compare bitcoin to gold as a store of value, consider production economics linked to mining costs, and assess bitcoin’s sensitivity to global liquidity conditions. Bitcoin's value is supported by its growing share of the global store-of-value market, fixed supply, and responsiveness to monetary conditions.
Adoption assumptions in the analysis include stronger institutional participation and clearer regulatory frameworks. Gold-market capitalization serves as a comparative benchmark, with bitcoin’s projected market cap ranging from 16–33% of gold’s market cap in the bear scenario, about one-third in the base case, and exceeding gold in the bull outlook.
From a portfolio perspective, the report suggests that allocating 2%–5% of an investment portfolio to bitcoin could enhance portfolio efficiency due to bitcoin's higher expected returns, lower volatility, and low correlations with equities and bonds.
The analysis emphasizes a long-term, disciplined allocation strategy and risk management over attempting short-term price predictions. It notes that volatility may decline as adoption widens and regulatory clarity improves. Bitcoin is thereby positioned not as an outlier but as a long-term portfolio component, with valuations tied to adoption dynamics and macroeconomic conditions rather than market sentiment.
