Chancellor Rachel Reeves Holds Pre-Budget News Conference Amidst Fiscal Challenges
On 4 November, Chancellor Rachel Reeves held an extraordinary, voluntary pre-Budget news conference to prepare the ground for a budget with difficult choices. During her breakfast speech that morning, Reeves framed the agenda to allow headroom under fiscal rules while maintaining long-term investment spending.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was expected to revise down productivity growth, a change that would impact numbers, spreadsheets, and policy trade-offs. Crucially, Reeves was aware that tax receipts were stronger than expected, which offset the productivity decline. The timing of when the OBR informed the Treasury about these factors has been noted.
Around 10 days later, the Treasury disclosed the stronger tax receipts after the Financial Times reported that income tax rates would not change, raising questions in the market about how the figures would add up. The Treasury argues that Reeves was not misleading, stating she faced a hole in her spreadsheets due to the need for headroom; however, the OBR might take a different view.
Critics contend that Reeves' public statements at the time left an impression that was not aligned with the later-known facts she was already aware of.
