China’s Record High Trade Surplus Highlights Challenges in Rebalancing Global Economy
China’s goods trade surplus reached $1.076 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, surpassing $1 trillion for the year. Despite a near one-third fall in exports to the United States in November, overall exports grew by 5.4% in 2025, with semiconductor exports up 24.7%. Exports to the European Union rose 14.8% in November following a 0.9% increase in October.
Some Chinese goods destined for Southeast Asia are being trans-shipped to the US via third countries to avoid tariffs, resulting in US imports from Indonesia rising to $23.1 billion in January–August 2025, up about a third from 2024. This underscores the complexity and persistence of global trade dynamics amid tariff disputes.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang remarked that tariffs have mutually destructive consequences which are increasingly evident. Morgan Stanley projects China’s share of global exports to rise from 15% to 16.5% by 2030, and Capital Economics forecasts resilience and market-share gains into next year.
Chairing a Politburo meeting, Xi Jinping emphasized expanding domestic demand and making consumption the main driver of growth. For 2026, the priority is boosting consumer spending amid high household savings. Currently, consumption accounts for about 50% of China’s GDP compared to around 80% in the US.
Overall, the report highlights China’s continued reliance on foreign demand and the significant challenges involved in rebalancing global trade amid ongoing tensions with the US.
