Coinbase Identifies Perpetual Futures, Prediction Markets, and Stablecoins as Key Crypto Market Drivers in 2026
Coinbase Institutional has identified three key areas that are expected to dominate the crypto market in 2026: perpetual futures, prediction markets, and stablecoins/payments.
According to Coinbase, market behavior is increasingly shaped by structural forces and institutional participation rather than traditional hype cycles. Perpetual futures have become a central pillar of price discovery with derivatives making up the majority of trading volume. Price formation is now largely focused on positioning, funding rates, and liquidity.
Leverage in the market was sharply reduced following liquidation events in late 2025, which Coinbase views as a structural reset that removed speculative excess while maintaining robust participation in perpetual futures.
Prediction markets are evolving from experimental tools into durable financial infrastructure. These markets are experiencing rising notional volumes, deeper liquidity, and greater demand for aggregation. The fragmentation across prediction platforms is leading to efficiency gains and attracting more sophisticated participants beyond just crypto-native traders, which is further supported by improving regulatory clarity in certain jurisdictions.
Stablecoins and payments are underpinning real-world activity, with growing stablecoin volumes in settlement and cross-border transfers. Payments are increasingly integrated with automated trading and AI-driven applications.
The outlook for 2026 evaluates whether these markets can scale effectively and manage risk under tighter conditions, and if they will influence crypto’s long-term trajectory beyond the next price cycle.
This analysis was authored by David Duong and Colin Basco for Coinbase Institutional and published by Siamak Masnavi on December 28, 2025.
