Coinbase to Launch Prediction Market and Tokenized Equities on December 17
Coinbase reportedly plans to launch its own prediction market and tokenized equities on December 17, according to Bloomberg. Early screenshots shared on X indicate that Kalshi powers Coinbase's prediction product. Coinbase has teased a livestreamed event for December 17 but has not commented on leaks related to the launch.
The year-to-date trading volume for prediction markets reached $28 billion through October, with these markets outperforming traditional election polling by approximately 30%. The U.S. predictive analytics market is currently valued at about $14 billion and is projected to grow to $32.85 billion by 2030.
In the competitive landscape, Gemini has obtained approval to launch prediction markets while Crypto.com has partnered with Trump Media & Technology Group to pursue similar initiatives. Regulatory complexities remain notable: Polymarket exited the U.S. market in 2022 following a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) settlement but was allowed to return in November after acquiring QCEX. Meanwhile, Washington State's Gambling Commission has labeled prediction markets as "unauthorized."
There are ongoing federal considerations as lawmakers introduced the Ban Gambling on Elections Act. Representatives Raskin and Salinas spearheaded the legislation, and Senator Merkley has issued warnings about the risks associated with election betting. Internationally, Taiwan has restricted election wagering.
An industry coalition consisting of Kalshi, Crypto.com, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Underdog has formed the Coalition for Prediction Markets to advocate for federally supervised access to these markets. Sara Slane, representing the coalition, emphasized the need for federal safeguards and clarity in policy to support the sector.
