Coinbase to Launch Prediction Market and Tokenized Equities on December 17
Coinbase plans to launch its own prediction market and tokenized equities on December 17, according to Bloomberg, although no formal announcement has been made yet. Early visuals showed that Kalshi will power Coinbase's prediction market functionality.
Prediction markets have seen significant activity, with $28 billion in trading volume year-to-date through October. Studies suggest these markets outperform traditional election polling by approximately 30%. The US predictive analytics market is currently valued at about $14 billion and is projected to reach $32.85 billion by 2030.
Other crypto firms are also entering the prediction market space. Gemini has received approval to launch its own prediction markets, while Crypto.com partnered with Trump Media & Technology Group to support similar initiatives. Polymarket was forced out of the market in 2022 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for failing to register as a derivatives exchange but was approved to return in November after acquiring QCEX, a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse.
The legal status of prediction markets remains uncertain. The Washington State Gambling Commission has labeled prediction markets as unauthorized gambling. Federal and state court cases will play a major role in determining their legality, while Congress has discussed imposing restrictions such as the Ban Gambling on Elections Act introduced by Representatives Jamie Raskin and Salinas. Senator Jeff Merkley has also warned that election betting could undermine democracy.
To advocate for federally supervised, transparent access and standardized regulation, a Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM) has been formed. This coalition includes Kalshi, Crypto.com, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Underdog, aiming to shape the regulatory landscape for this growing market.
