CoinShares and Experts Debunk Tether Collapse Fears Amid Market Concerns
The December 5 market update from CoinShares presents data showing Tether reserves exceeding $181 billion against liabilities of approximately $174.45 billion, indicating a surplus of roughly $6.78 billion. This counters concerns raised on November 30 by Hayes, who warned that Tether was running a large interest-rate trade involving Bitcoin, approximately $22.8 billion in gold, and the potential exposure that Federal Reserve rate cuts might bring to income.
Tether Group's Chief Technology Officer, Ardoino, outlined that the group's assets stand near $215 billion, with an excess equity of around $7 billion and approximately $23 billion in retained earnings. Bitcoin and gold constitute about 12.6% of Tether's reserves, while over 70% is held in short-term U.S. Treasuries. The Q3 2025 attestation revealed an excess reserve buffer and proprietary group equity close to $30 billion. Tether reportedly generated over $10 billion in profit from reserve asset interest, with circulating USDT surpassing $174 billion and issuance increasing over $17 billion in the quarter.
However, on November 26, 2025, S&P downgraded USDT's peg-stability rating from 4 to 5, citing high-risk assets and gaps in disclosure. Under the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, this rating could bar USDT from European Union exchanges, potentially redirecting liquidity towards Circle’s USDC.
Ayoub of Citi clarified that Hayes overlooked key differences between disclosed reserves and total corporate holdings. Tether maintains a separate equity balance sheet that is not publicly reported, with roughly $120 billion invested in interest-yielding Treasuries generating around 4% returns since 2023. Kaminska observed that Tether's thick equity buffer and retained earnings resemble a banking model with comparatively low leverage, and redemptions in gold could act as a last-resort funding asset. Additionally, cross-border redemptions might function outside synchronized regulatory frameworks.
Tether has also expanded credit by about $1.5 billion across oil, cotton, wheat, and other agricultural markets. Overall, the data and expert analyses suggest that fears of a Tether collapse are unfounded amid these complexities and market dynamics.
