Concerns Over Mass Layoffs and Income Inequality Due to AI, Not an AI Market Bubble
The primary concern surrounding artificial intelligence is its potential to cause mass layoffs and widen income inequality, rather than the emergence of an AI market bubble.
Greg Brockman and other experts warn that up to 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs could be wiped out in the next one to five years, with US unemployment potentially rising to between 10 and 20 percent. A report by Sanders indicates that AI and automation may replace up to 97 million US jobs over the coming decade.
Economist Daron Acemoglu identifies two possible directions for AI development: an anti-worker route that maximizes automation and layoffs, and a pro-worker route that emphasizes increasing workers' skills and reducing layoffs. Currently, the AI craze tends to favor automation that prioritizes profits over workers' welfare.
Pro-worker AI strategies could boost productivity and social cohesion but may threaten the profits of big tech companies. Realizing this vision requires strong government and societal pressure.
The Biden administration has engaged in discussions with labor groups to mitigate AI's harmful effects and has implemented some pro-worker policies. However, no comprehensive regulatory recommendations have been made, and efforts were later rescinded by the Trump administration.
Advocates suggest adopting a collaborative model like those in Germany or Scandinavia, emphasizing cooperation among industry, labor, and government to foster pro-worker AI development. Historical precedents such as Roosevelt-era electrification show how such cooperation can succeed.
Policy proposals include expanding retraining programs potentially through free community college, ensuring universal health coverage, instituting a four-day workweek with full pay, strengthening unemployment insurance, and opposing underfunded universal basic income schemes. To finance these measures, higher taxes on the ultra-rich are recommended.
Finally, there is a call for ensuring that workers have a meaningful voice in AI development to prevent profit-driven automation. A grassroots bottom-up movement is seen as essential to press lawmakers and technology companies to adopt fairer AI policies.
