Crypto Fear Index Hits 10, Lowest Since July 2022: Market Update and Outlook
Bitcoin is currently trading around $93,000 as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 10, its lowest level since July 2022. Over the past 24 hours, $617.45 million in liquidations occurred, including $242.19 million in Bitcoin and $169.06 million in Ethereum. The largest single liquidation was $30.60 million on a Hyperliquid Bitcoin position.
The Federal Reserve December rate-cut probability declined to about 40% from over 60% the prior week, reinforcing a risk-off market tone. Concurrently, US spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed $1.11 billion in weekly outflows between November 10 and 14, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with $532.41 million and Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust with around $290 million in outflows. ETF net assets currently stand at $125.34 billion, which is approximately 6.67% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
On-chain indicators show short-term holder capitulation with the Short-Term Holder Spend Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) below 1, indicating that coins held under three months drive most trading volume. Long-term holder selling has continued since September amid mid-cycle profit-taking, while the Realized Capitalization rose as new short-term holders entered the market. The ETF Realized Price is at $86,680, leaving Bitcoin roughly 9% above the average cost basis of ETF buyers.
Analysts describe the recent price move as a bull-market correction influenced by marginal flows and short-term holder deleveraging rather than signaling a market top, though the longer-term outlook remains uncertain. Bitcoin tested the 2025 yearly open around $94,000 to $95,000, with the most recent weekly close falling below the 50-day exponential moving average for the first time since Q3 2023. Some analysts suggest there could be up to an 80% bear-market probability if this pattern continues through November 24.
The overall crypto market capitalization decreased to $3.31 trillion, down 0.9%, marking approximately $1.1 trillion erased over 41 days, underscoring broad risk-off sentiment. Michael van de Poppe indicated a potential market recovery if Bitcoin holds above $94,000 and tests $100,000 within the week, expecting a wave of short liquidity to be swept out if these levels sustain.
