Crypto Market Eyes Catalyst Amid Mixed Signals and Regulatory Guidance
Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded to approximately $89,600–$90,000 following a drop on Sunday, while the broader cryptocurrency market remained largely unchanged. Notably, the RAIN token gained over 6%. Market analysts, including BRN's Tim Misir, describe the price action as compressed with volatility but low conviction, characterizing the market as waiting for a catalyst.
Key upcoming catalysts this week include U.S. retail sales, jobs data, inflation figures, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Additionally, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points.
Sentiment indicators such as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index have shifted toward fear, coinciding with roughly $300 million in leveraged long bets being wiped out within 24 hours, according to Coinglass data. Nasdaq technicals suggest that an earlier recovery rally may be ending. The BTC options market exhibits a bias toward puts across multiple timeframes, and the MOVE index signals rising Treasury volatility.
On the mining front, the BTC hash rate declined by 8% to about 1,200 EH/s. Nano Labs' Kong Jianping attributed this drop to mining-farm closures in Xinjiang.
In regulatory developments, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released a wallet and custody investor guide. The guide outlines risks associated with various custody models and warns against practices such as rehypothecation and asset commingling.
