Crypto Markets to be Driven by Regulation in 2026 Amid Global Financial Instability
Grayscale anticipates that a bipartisan U.S. crypto market structure bill will become law in 2026, establishing a traditional financial-market rulebook for crypto with elements such as registration, disclosure, asset classifications, and insider guardrails. This clearer regulatory framework is expected to accelerate institutional adoption and onchain activity by making regulated firms more comfortable holding digital assets and conducting transactions on blockchains. The new framework could harmonize crypto rules across the U.S. and potentially other major economies, marking the start of a more institutional era for crypto markets.
Quantum computing concerns remain real but are unlikely to materially affect crypto prices in 2026. Although markets may experience related headlines and debates, immediate price impact is not expected. Over the long term, many blockchains will require post-quantum cryptography upgrades to mitigate quantum risks, but this issue is considered distant at present. Grayscale frames the near-term market dynamic as regulation versus quantum fears, with regulation viewed as the dominant force shaping markets in the coming year.
Meanwhile, Iran is facing acute financial instability as its currency, the rial, plunged to an all-time low of approximately 1.42 million rials per USD over the weekend. This depreciation has led to widespread protests and shop closures across major cities including Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, and Mashhad. The Tehran Grand Bazaar and central districts shut down for two days amid chants against economic mismanagement, with security forces responding with tear gas and batons. In response, President Masoud Pezeshkian instructed the Interior Minister to engage protesters through dialogue, while Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei has called for swift punishment of those deemed responsible. Former economy minister Abdolnaser Hemmati was appointed to succeed Central Bank Governor Mohammad Reza Farzin, who resigned amid the crisis.
Economic challenges in Iran are severe, with inflation reaching 52.6% year-over-year in December. Food prices were up 72% and medical items increased by 50%, while rial depreciation has worsened the affordability of imported goods. Unemployment, particularly among youth, remains high. The government also introduced a third gasoline price tier, charging motorists more than three times the subsidized rate for purchases above 160 liters per month.
In light of such monetary instability, Bitcoin has been highlighted as a protective asset. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley characterized Bitcoin as a shield against monetary mismanagement and currency collapse, while Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that Bitcoin provides a check and balance on the U.S. dollar amid deficits and inflation. Bitcoin was trading near $87,000 at year-end. On the political front, exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi called for regime change through civil disobedience, with figures like Naftali Bennett and Mike Pompeo voicing support for the protesters.
