Crypto Winter Looms in 2026 but Cantor Fitzgerald Sees Institutional Growth and Onchain Shifts
Cantor Fitzgerald anticipates a crypto winter in 2026 characterized by less chaos and a stronger institutional influence. Key trends shaping the landscape include growth in decentralized finance (DeFi), increased tokenization of real-world assets, and greater regulatory clarity.
Onchain real-world asset tokenization reached $18.5 billion in 2025 and is projected to surpass $50 billion in 2026 as more institutions explore onchain settlement solutions. Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) are gaining market share over centralized platforms, particularly with perpetual futures DEX volumes expected to grow due to improvements in infrastructure and user experience, even if overall volumes decline with Bitcoin price fluctuations.
In the regulatory arena, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY) was passed in the U.S. This legislation defines when a digital asset qualifies as a security or a commodity and assigns spot market oversight to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) once decentralization thresholds are met. This development is expected to reduce headline risk and encourage greater participation by banks and asset managers, strengthening compliance pathways and lending legitimacy to decentralized protocols.
Onchain prediction markets, notably in sports betting, have seen volumes exceed $5.9 billion. Major platforms like Robinhood, Coinbase, and Gemini have entered the space, offering fairer, order-book-driven alternatives to traditional sportsbooks.
Bitcoin was priced around $87,675, roughly 17% above the average cost basis of the Strategy fund. While a drop below this level could unsettle markets, Cantor Fitzgerald expects the fund to remain a holder rather than sell. Conversely, digital asset trusts (DATs) have slowed accumulation as token prices and trust premiums compress, even while institutional activity expands in other segments.
Overall, 2026 may not bring a significant breakout for cryptocurrency prices, but the foundation for more durable infrastructure and deeper institutional adoption appears solidified as prices stabilize.
