Decades-Long Philippine Conflict Traditionally Pauses for Christmas Amid Global Rise in Violence
The conflict between the Philippines’ Maoist New People’s Army (NPA) and the government has persisted for 56 years and is expected to reach its 57th year in 2026, resulting in approximately 60,000 deaths. Despite the prolonged violence, a Christmas ceasefire tradition continues, with both sides typically halting hostilities during Christmas. This practice has been observed unilaterally since at least 1986 and, while customary, is not part of any formal agreement. In 2025, the NPA declared a four-day Christmas and New Year ceasefire that the government did not reciprocate. Unilateral Christmas ceasefires are common in the Philippines rather than formal negotiated pacts.
Globally, 2024 saw an increase in conflicts, reaching 61 state-based conflicts, the most since 1946, and marking the fourth-most violent year since the Cold War ended. Factors contributing to this rise include the expansion of the Islamic State since 2014 and ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Experts note a decline in peacekeeping and peace processes as the liberal Western order weakens, with outside powers pushing their own "victor’s peace" approaches. Grassroots peacemaking is increasingly seen as more effective when guided by local communities rather than external powers and institutions.
In related events, Russia proposed an Orthodox Christmas truce in 2023 that Ukraine rejected due to a lack of trust. In May 2025, Russia declared a brief unilateral ceasefire, which Ukraine dismissed as a farce, reporting continued attacks. The Philippine insurgency is described as badly weakened and increasingly irrelevant, raising the possibility that Christmas ceasefires may become a thing of the past if current trends continue.
