Elections in Guinea and Central African Republic Amid Regional Challenges
Presidential elections are scheduled in Guinea and the Central African Republic (CAR), with terms set for seven years. Incumbents in both countries are favored to win outright in the first round by securing more than 50% of the vote. In Guinea, General Mamadi Doumbouya, who led the 2021 coup, is dominating the campaign. Notably, opposition figure Cellou Dalein Diallo has been excluded from the ballot. Doumbouya had previously pledged that no members of the junta would stand in the election, but has breached this commitment by running himself. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has expressed relief at the return to elected government in Guinea, especially amidst regional instability marked by coups and the bloc withdrawals of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
In the Central African Republic, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a mathematician and former university vice-chancellor, is seeking a third term after scrapping presidential term limits. Unlike Guinea, candidate Anicet-Georges Dologuélé has been allowed to run, although some opposition groups have chosen to boycott the election. The security situation in CAR remains fragile, with peacekeepers from the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) assisting in rebuilding the administration. Touadéra maintains relations with France, the European Union, and the United Nations, although Russia continues to be a significant factor in military affairs.
International perspectives vary between the two countries. Doumbouya's regime in Guinea enjoys goodwill and partnership from Western entities, including France, despite concerns around its human-rights record. Meanwhile, international partners supporting CAR tend to prioritize stability over criticism given the delicate security context. Regionally, West Africa faces ongoing jihadist threats, and Guinea's choice to remain within ECOWAS is viewed as a positive step toward normalizing governance despite lingering concerns.
