End of 28-Day Pause in Small-Boat Crossings Highlights Volatility in Migration Debate
A 28-day pause in small-boat crossings across the Channel ended on 13 December 2025, marking the longest lull since 2018. Ministers privately welcomed this period of reduced crossings amid ongoing public pressure on the issue, but experts say the lull is reflective of seasonal weather conditions rather than policy success. December is typically quiet due to the cold weather, and the recent pause underscores the volatility of migrant arrivals, which remain highly weather-dependent and politically sensitive.
Year-to-date arrivals total 39,292, a 7% increase from 36,816 at the same point last year. The 'one in, one out' dynamic indicates that short-term dips in crossings can be swiftly reversed, with factors like weather and disruptions to smuggling activities significantly affecting volumes.
The Prime Minister has vowed to halt what he terms the 'vile trade' of migrants crossing the Channel. Meanwhile, the Home Secretary has emphasised measures focused on deterrence, speeding up removals, enhancing international cooperation, and dismantling smuggling gangs.
Opposition parties have criticised the government's approach: Labour claims the Conservatives have left a broken asylum system, while the Green Party advocates for a more humane system permitting asylum seekers to work but rejects calls for open borders.
Overall, political gains from migration policy remain elusive, with commentators noting that aside from seasonal winter fluctuations, sustained reductions in crossings require more than just weather-driven pauses.
