Europe’s Demographic Challenges and the Essential Role of Immigration
The European Union faces a significant demographic challenge with a total fertility rate of 1.38, and the UK slightly higher at 1.44, both well below the replacement rate of 2.1. Without increased immigration, Europe risks a population decline that could threaten the viability of its societies, as exemplified by countries like Poland, where the fertility rate is around 1.2.
The author argues that immigration is crucial to prevent Europe's demographic collapse and to preserve the continent's civilization. This perspective is supported by UN data indicating that global population will continue to rise for generations due to demographic momentum, including increased longevity and improved child survival rates. This growth trajectory is difficult to alter without drastic measures, such as mass mortality events, which are undesirable.
Critics who attribute environmental problems primarily to population size are described as misdirected; instead, the focus should be on reducing consumption and implementing policy changes like adopting plant-based diets and increasing renewable energy use for more immediate environmental solutions.
The article also references a Lancet estimate highlighting the potential demographic impact of Elon Musk’s actions, suggesting they could cause about 14 million deaths. Moreover, it imagines future shifts in global power, such as Nigeria emerging as a significant global force, illustrating the long-term transformations in global demographics and influence.
