Fed Rate Cut Odds Drop as Missing Jobs Data Clouds December Outlook
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not release October employment data due to the ongoing government shutdown. November employment data is expected to be released only after the Federal Reserve's December meeting. This lack of fresh labor market information has weakened the case for a rate cut at that meeting, as hawkish policymakers may be less inclined to support further easing without new data.
Currently, CME futures price in a 33% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December 2025, down from 50% the prior day and significantly below the roughly 100% probability seen three weeks earlier. The minutes from the October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting revealed deep divisions among policymakers regarding further easing measures.
Market reactions to the missing employment data included paring recent gains, with U.S. stocks retreating alongside declines in cryptocurrency prices and crypto-related equities. For example, Circle (CRCL) shares fell about 10% today and have dropped approximately 50% over the past month. Similarly, Bitcoin treasury company Strategy declined about 10% today and roughly 40% over the same period.
Separately, former President Donald Trump commented that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell would have been fired if not for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urging to retain him until 2026. Trump criticized the current high interest rates and threatened to dismiss Powell otherwise.
Before the December meeting, there will be one national employment report available, covering September numbers due Thursday morning; however, its age makes it unlikely to significantly influence monetary policy decisions.
