Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer Expects Bear Market Into 2026 as Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Continues
Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity, has stated that bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle remains intact, indicating a bear market likely extending into 2026. Timmer, who continues to maintain a long-term bullish view on bitcoin, bases his analysis on the cycle tied to the halving events that occur roughly every four years. These halvings reduce mining rewards by 50%, generating a supply shock that historically drives bitcoin's price through distinct bullish and bearish phases.
This cycle has been evident following the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings. The current cycle peaked near $125,000 in October 2025 after approximately 145 weeks, consistent with prior cycle expectations. Since then, bitcoin has entered a bear market phase, with Timmer projecting a downturn through the winter of 2025-2026 and characterizing 2026 as a potential 'year off' from significant upward price movement.
He also highlights a support range for bitcoin between $65,000 and $75,000 during this period. Despite some analysts, including Matt Hougan of Bitwise and Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, dismissing the four-year cycle framework due to advances in bitcoin ETF approvals, regulatory developments, and increasing institutional adoption, Timmer's outlook supports its continued relevance in explaining bitcoin's price dynamics.
