Five Sleeper Races Could Upend 2026 Across Multiple States
As the 2026 election approaches, five sleeper races are emerging as critical contests that could reshape political dynamics in key districts and states. These races include Mississippi's 2nd Congressional District, Connecticut's 5th District, Maryland's 6th District, Nebraska's 2nd District, and New Mexico's gubernatorial race.
In Mississippi's 2nd District, longtime Rep. Bennie Thompson (D) faces an unexpected primary challenge from 33-year-old Evan Turnage. Thompson, who has served for three decades, represents one of the nation's poorest districts spanning Jackson west to Yazoo City and Vicksburg. He has chaired the House Homeland Security Committee and previously referred to a National Guard shooting as an "unfortunate accident." His last competitive general election saw him win 55-45 against Hayes Dent.
Connecticut's 5th District has a history of competitiveness, with recent close races indicating potential opportunities for Republicans. George Logan narrowly missed winning in 2022 and challenged again in 2024. Although Logan's 2026 candidacy is unconfirmed, shifting district maps may give Republicans an outside chance.
Maryland's 6th District features a rematch between Neil Parrott (R), making his fourth attempt, and April McClain-Delaney (D), who won 53-47 in 2024. The district's political landscape has been influenced by past gerrymandering and recent map changes affecting the race's dynamics.
Nebraska's 2nd District, centered around Omaha, becomes an open seat with Rep. Don Bacon (R) retiring. The contest draws multiple contenders from both parties, including Brinker Harding, Brett Lindstrom, James Leuschen, and John Cavanaugh. This race could prove pivotal for the balance of power in the House.
In New Mexico, Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham is term-limited, opening the gubernatorial race. Deb Haaland is the leading Democratic candidate, while Greggory Hull is the GOP contender. Although the state has limited urban density, its evolving political dynamics make the race competitive.
These five races exemplify significant contests to watch in 2026 as both major parties vie for control in strategically important areas across the United States.
