Galaxy Digital's Head of Research Explains the Uncertain Bitcoin Outlook for 2026
Galaxy Research, led by Alex Thorn, presents a highly uncertain outlook for Bitcoin in 2026 due to overlapping macro risks and uneven market momentum, while maintaining a long-term bullish perspective. Thorn references Galaxy Research's December 18 report, "26 Crypto, Bitcoin, DeFi, and AI Predictions for 2026," as the foundation for these views.
Options markets reflect a wide range of potential Bitcoin outcomes, indicating roughly equal odds of prices around $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026, and about $50,000 or $250,000 by the end of the year. In the near term, Bitcoin remains in a bear phase with downside risk prevailing until it decisively trades above approximately $100,000 to $105,000.
The long-term market structure suggests declining volatility, supported by institutional strategies such as options overwriting and yield-generation programs that moderate extreme price movements. Additionally, the current volatility smile prices more downside protection than upside exposure, a characteristic typical of mature macro assets rather than high-growth markets.
Galaxy’s longer-term confidence is grounded in deeper institutional integration, including the incorporation of Bitcoin into major asset-allocation platforms, which could drive persistent investment flows across market cycles and support adoption into standard portfolios. The firm projects that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027, driven by expanding institutional access, potential easing of monetary conditions, and increased demand for fiat alternatives like gold used as hedges.
