Global Conflicts and Geopolitical Tensions in 2025: A Worrying Outlook
The year 2025 is described as a worrying period marked by three major wars with significant geopolitical implications, involving Ukraine, Gaza, and Sudan.
In Ukraine, the UN has reported 14,000 civilian deaths amid ongoing conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that the situation could escalate into a broader conflict, potentially World War III.
In Gaza, more than 70,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli actions. Additionally, around 1,200 Palestinians were killed during the 2023 Hamas attack. These figures come from the Gaza health ministry and are considered reliable by the UN.
The Sudanese civil war has resulted in over 150,000 deaths with around 12 million people displaced in recent years, highlighting the severe humanitarian crisis in the region.
Regarding international responses, Russia and Western nations have been involved in multiple tensions. There are concerns about undersea cables being at risk, NATO defenses undergoing drone tests, and persistent hacking activities. An inquiry linked the 2018 Salisbury poisoning directly to Russia, concluding the attack was approved at the highest levels, implicating President Vladimir Putin.
The United States' role in these conflicts is complex. Former President Donald Trump has claimed proficiency in resolving wars and was involved in negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza. However, the US is seen as turning its focus away from Europe, thereby increasing the defense burden on European nations.
Looking ahead to 2026, Russia aims to assert greater dominance. President Putin has signaled a willingness to escalate conflicts if Russia is treated disrespectfully. While a peace settlement in Ukraine might be possible, it could leave Putin with leverage for future actions. There is concern about a potential drift toward US isolationism and a weakening of Western unity.
In East Asia, China's rise continues with Xi Jinping reportedly ordering the People's Liberation Army to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, according to former CIA director William Burns. The legacy of the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests still influences China's leadership. An anecdote involving Bo Xilai highlights ongoing concerns about political insecurity within the Chinese government.
