Gold and Silver Outperform Bitcoin Amid Debasement Trade Dynamics in Late 2025
As of December 18, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) has declined about 30% from its peak in early October, currently trading around $88,000. In contrast, gold is trading near record highs at approximately $4,350 per ounce, while silver has surged above $66 per ounce, marking an approximate 40% increase since October.
JPMorgan's October debasement thesis anticipated that both gold and Bitcoin would benefit, with a volatility-adjusted BTC target of $165,000 relative to gold. However, the market has not aligned with this forecast so far. The BTC-to-gold ratio, which peaked in late 2024, remains in a bear market, down over 50%, with August forming a lower high and the ratio reaching its weakest level in nearly two years.
On-chain data indicate selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders, with around 1.6 million BTC in UTXOs older than two years reactivated since 2024. Glassnode data support this observation, showing increased selling activity by long-term investors, as noted by analyst Vetle Lunde.
There are ongoing discussions about quantum computing posing a theoretical risk to Bitcoin's cryptographic security, contributing to a source of uncertainty.
Analysts observe a rally in silver that could potentially set the stage for Bitcoin gains. Historical patterns suggest that gold peaks often precede Bitcoin rallies by 100 to 150 trading days, indicating a possible catch-up for BTC in 2026, according to insights from Bitfinex and ByteTree.
Currently, gold and silver are leading the debasement trade winners, with Bitcoin lagging. A Bitcoin resurgence remains possible in 2026.
