Greggs Plans Expansion Amid Sales Decline and Market Challenges
Greggs aims to expand its presence in the UK to 3,500 stores, an increase of around 800 from its current approximately 2,675 outlets. The company has plans to open new factories in Derby, an automated site launching in 2026, and Kettering, scheduled for 2027. Its Newcastle production site already produces about 1 million sausage rolls daily, with a fourth production line added in 2024. Capital expenditure for 2025 is estimated at around £300 million.
Despite these growth ambitions, Greggs reported a sales decline in 2025 and experienced a roughly 40% drop in its share price over the past year. The stock ended the year as the most shorted in the UK. Activist investor Lauro Asset Management has urged the company to implement cost reductions to avoid a takeover, while analysts at Panmure Liberum suggest the company is at a crossroads.
Chief Executive Officer Roisin Currie maintains that Greggs has not yet reached its peak and that the growth plan remains on track. However, some analysts question the company’s direction amid its expansion efforts.
Pricing adjustments have been notable, with the price of a sausage roll in Newcastle rising from 66p in 2012 to £1.30, and sandwiches and hot items increasing by about 6% and 4.5% respectively as of October 2025. Despite these increases, the chain's pricing is still described as competitive.
Greggs is also experimenting with new formats beyond its traditional stores, such as the Bitesize Greggs concept in Sevenoaks and the Greggs pub pop-up Golden Flake Tavern in Fenwick, Newcastle, signaling diversification.
While expanding internationally is generally unlikely, past efforts to enter the Belgium market were unsuccessful, with the English Bakery stores having closed in 2008, reinforcing a UK-centric growth strategy.
The company is set to report sales figures for festive bakes and mince pies for the fourth quarter on 8 January, with analysts noting that the results could influence Greggs' strategic direction moving forward.
