Heightened China-Taiwan Tensions and Regional Responses in 2025
In 2025, tensions between China and Taiwan intensified, marked by frequent incursions of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and large-scale military exercises. December saw the largest Taiwan-focused drills to date, which included live-fire exercises and encirclement simulations. Beijing attributed this escalation to Washington's December arms package for Taiwan, valued at about $11 billion and described as one of the largest sales in years.
Taipei welcomed the support but called for restraint, while Beijing condemned what it viewed as external interference threatening its sovereignty. Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi linked a possible contingency in Taiwan to Japan's security, signaling a broader coalition response, a stance China condemned as abandoning restraint.
The United States emphasized that peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait remain vital interests and maintained a strategy of ambiguity. The Pentagon projected that China could fight and win a Taiwan war by 2027. Analysts noted that China appears to be pursuing gray-zone tactics, including cyber operations, economic coercion, legal warfare, and blockade-style scenarios rather than launching a full invasion in the near term.
The risk of miscalculation has increased with greater regional involvement, including by Japan and the Philippines, and a more volatile status quo by the end of 2025, although no invasion occurred during that year.
